As we head into the sixth weekend of the 2021 season (how did we get here already?), some things are turning out the way we envisioned them back in March. The Dodgers, Braves and Reds are among the most potent offensive teams in the majors, and the Pirates are at or near the back of the wOBA and ISO rankings. Until Ke’Bryan Hayes (wrist) returns, your best Pirates hitters for fantasy are Bryan Reynolds and Colin Moran, but even with a seven-game schedule coming up, they are fringy choices for 12-team mixed leagues at best. Facing robust starters from the Reds’ and Giants’ staffs will just compound the lack of run-producing opportunities that are likely to plague them all season long.
Advertisem*nt
It may have been harder to see the offensive struggles of the Padres and Mets coming. Both squads are sitting in the bottom half of the wOBA rankings, and they are just ahead of the Pirates in ISO, ranking 28th and 29th, respectively. However, only one of these offenses is poised to change their fortunes this week. You can probably guess which one, but read ahead just to be sure. There are also several other nuggets that will come in handy when shaping your fantasy roster for the week.
1. The Padres’ slumping hitters are due for a turnaround.
Given the presence of Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, it seems odd that the Padres collectively own a meager .298 wOBA. Yet the rest of the batting order — including Manny Machado— hasn’t kept pace, and even Tatis, Myers and Hosmer have scuffled in recent days. However, with a three-game series in Colorado followed by a three-game set with the Cardinals at home, it’s time to get most, if not all of your Padres hitters active. Tatis, Grisham and Myers are hitters you can just keep in your lineup, but for those who have been sitting Hosmer and Machado in shallow leagues, it’s time to get them back in the game. (For what it’s worth, Machado is also an automatic start for me, even when he is slumping.) Austin Nola is practically a must-start this week, and Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth deserve some consideration in 12-team mixed leagues.
If you are concerned that the series against the Cardinals might dilute these hitters’ number, be assured that this could be a productive series for them, as well. The starters they are projected to face are Carlos Martínez, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim. Wainwright (31.1 percent CSW, 3.65 SIERA) could provide a challenge, but Martínez has been extremely contact-friendly (13.5 percent K%), and Kim has not been going deep into starts. Seeing more of the Cardinals’ bullpen, which has the highest xFIP in the majors, is a good development for their opponents.
2. This is not the week to give the benefit of the doubt to your struggling Mets hitters.
The Mets, unlike the Padres, don’t stand a good chance of reversing their fortunes at the plate or being helpful to fantasy managers. They play only five games this week, and the final three of those games involve facing Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan (and perhaps a piggybacking Luis Patiño) and Ryan Yarbrough, who has deserved better than his 63.2 percent strand rate and 4.58 ERA. Having a good week could rest on getting heavy production against an Orioles’ starter to be announced and Matt Harvey. Even the former Met could be a tougher matchup than we might expect (more on this later).
Advertisem*nt
Pete Alonso needs to be started in just about any circ*mstance, but otherwise, your Mets hitters are bench candidates in standard and shallow formats. This is not likely to be the week where we finally see some power from Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil, so it’s a good idea to see what your alternatives are in 12-team leagues — particularly of the three-outfielder variety for the latter three. It also doesn’t help that, with Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis out with finger injuries, run production opportunities could be scarce.
3. The Cardinals’ hitters have brutal matchups.
The Redbirds have a six-game schedule, but given the difficulty of their matchups, their hitters might as well be playing a three-game week. They may wind up facing the following starters in succession: Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Joe Musgrove, Dinelson Lamet and Yu Darvish. In 12-team leagues, only Nolan Arenado should be considered an automatic start. It may be difficult to find a replacement for Dylan Carlson in five-outfielder leagues, but you could at least find a safer alternative if you have only three outfield slots. With Tyler O’Neill starting to cool off, it may be best to sit him even in five-outfielder leagues.
4. At least for one week, give Evan Longoria a chance.
If you want to find players with power potential, there may be no better leaderboard to review than Baseball Savant’s rankings for average exit velocity on flies and line drives (EV FB/LD). When you find a player you don’t expect to see keeping company with the likes of Tatis, Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout, that’s a good sign that you should pick up said player, if possible.
Heading into this weekend, Evan Longoria ranks third in this metric among all hitters with at least 25 flies and liners combined, just behind Stanton and Byron Buxton. That suggests that his .231 ISO is not only legitimate, but quite likely an indication that he has underachieved as a power hitter so far in 2021. Longoria is currently available in the majority of leagues on CBS, ESPN and Yahoo, and he has a great schedule this week. The Giants start the week by hosting the Rangers for two games, and they’ll face Kohei Arihara and Jordan Lyles in those contests. Then they travel to Pittsburgh for four games, where they will contend with the Pirates’ mediocre pitching staff.
5. You have two good ways to add some speed to your lineup.
A pair of hitters who rank among the top five percent in sprint speed have great schedules this week. With Joey Votto out with a thumb fracture, and with some versatile players (i.e., Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas) potentially shifting positions, Nick Senzel could see some steady playing time for the Reds. With a three-game series in Pittsburgh and a four-game series in Colorado coming up, that boost in playing time could translate into a productive week. Not only could Senzel steal some bases off Jacob Stallings (4 runners thrown out on 19 attempts) and Dom Nuñez (no runners thrown out on 11 attempts), but he could rack up some hits as well. Myles Straw may have a harder time collecting steals over three games versus the Angels and four games against the Rangers, but he could get on base at a higher clip than usual, particularly during that long weekend series.
Advertisem*nt
6. One widely-available two-start pitcher stands out above the rest.
Viable and available two-start pitchers are almost non-existent this week. If you’re in a shallow league, you might be able to add Jordan Montgomery (at TB, at BAL), Brady Singer (at DET, at CHW) or JT Brubaker (vs. CIN, vs. SF). If you’re not fortunate enough to be able get any of those three, you are likely down to one possible option. As long asLogan Webb goes to the bullpen as expected when Johnny Cueto (lat) returns for the Giants this Sunday, Aaron Sanchez will line up for a start at home against the Rangers and then a road start at the Pirates this coming week. As it is, Sanchez profiles as the ideal two-start streamer — a ground ball pitcher who won’t hurt you for strikeouts as long as he gets to start twice. In this particular week, his two starts come at pitcher-friendly venues against lineups that aren’t likely to be very formidable. Unless you are in a shallow league, stream Sanchez or don’t stream two-start pitchers at all.
7. A couple of ex-Mets are intriguing one-start streamers.
If you are particularly thin in your rotation this week, there is one other possible streaming option, even if you are in a 12-team mixed league. Steven Matz got this season off to a good start, but after flopping in each of his last two outings, you might be averse to using him at home against the Phillies this week. This is actually a really ideal matchup for the Blue Jays’ lefty. Matz relies on freezing batters and inducing soft contact for his success, and while the Phillies’ hitters aren’t especially passive, they are currently the third-worst team at making contact when they do swing at pitches in the strike zone. Matz works in the zone a lot, as he is in the top quartile of qualified pitchers in terms of Zone%.
Matz is not likely to be available in all but the shallowest CBS leagues, but he could be on waivers in your ESPN or Yahoo leagues. Another alternative — though strictly for deeper leagues — is Matz’s former teammate Matt Harvey. It is the Mets’ depleted lineup that Harvey will get to face this week. While he has not been good at getting whiffs so far this season (7.4 percent SwStr%), Harvey is in the top quartile for lowest EV FB/LD and has allowed two home runs in 31 innings for the Orioles.
Note: 2021 season-to-date stats are for all games played through Wednesday, May 5.
Top photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball Savant.
Al Melchior is a contributor to The Athletic as a writer and podcast host. He has been a fantasy baseball writer since 2000, when he began writing articles on Scoresheet Baseball for BaseballHQ. He has been a writer and data analyst for CBSSports.com, and he has written for RotoGraphs, MLB.com, Fantrax and more. Follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorBB
