2024 Mets Minors Top Prospects: No. 5 Christian Scott (2024)

Christian Scott, Photo by Ed Delany of Mets Minors

No. 5: Christian Scott, RHP

B/T:R/R Age: 6/15/1999 (24)
Ht: 6’4″ Wt:215lb.
Acquired:Drafted In The Fifth Round of the 2021 MLB Draft from University Of Florida
ETA: NowPrevious Rank:N/R
Stats (New York Mets 2024) – 2.84 ERA, 12 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 14 K

Disclaimer: All prospects rankings were made in the preseason and have not been adjusted for play in 2024.

Christian Scott had an interesting route to his status as a top-5 prospect in the Mets system. Scott was primarily a reliever at Florida who relied on a sinker/slider combo. Even with his strong velocity, he was never a true strikeout pitcher but did exhibit great control, only walking nine hitters in 54 innings in his 2021 campaign. The Mets saw enough that they drafted him in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB draft.

Scott would pitch three unremarkable innings in the 2021 season, followed by a 2022 season that saw him advance from Low-A to High-A without much to write home about. It was not until the 2023 season that Scott started to come into his own. He stopped throwing the sinker and instead went with a hard, riding fastball with a solid IVB that help push him through the system from Low-A to AA over the course of the 23′ season. Scott also scrapped he curveball he seldom used in favor of a harder slider of the gyro variety and the introduction of a sweeper. With a new repertoire, Scott struck out 107 batters over 87 2/3 innings while only walking 12. Scott seemingly got better as the season went on as he went from an unranked prospect in the eyes of many Mets scouting to an absolute must-watch.

The 2024 season saw him open the season at Syracuse, and after putting up a 3.20 ERA over 25 1/3 innings, he received the call for what was believed to be a spot start for the New York Mets. Despite his ERA in Syracuse not being as stellar as it was in his 2023 season, he was still striking out batters at an elite level and overmatching hitters with his baseball IQ. The only issue he seemed to have was allowing home runs, giving up seven in those 25 1/3 innings. While NBT Bank Stadium in Syracuse is a notoriously hitter-friendly park, that was something to be mildly concerned about.

Scott has a true four-pitch mix, mostly relying on his riding fastball that consistently hits 95 MPH and he locates well up in the zone. As with most pitchers who choose to live in the upper part of the zone, home runs may always be an issue, but many successful MLB pitchers have been homer-prone and still able to be very effective, if not dominant. He has thrown that pitch 45% of the time at the MLB level, and has gotten some solid swings-and-misses. He uses his slider/sweeper combo in almost equal amounts, 23% and 21% respectively. The gyro slider comes in around 87 MPH, and the sweeper at 83 MPH. The addition of the sweeper has allowed him to avoid the platoon splits that can come with pitchers who do not have strong changeups. Scott also throws a splitter that is clearly his fourth-best pitch, but he still shows some confidence in it, throwing it 11% of the time. His change comes in at 85 MPH, giving him some solid separation between his four-seam fastball.

Scott has many advanced metrics that point towards him having continued success at the MLB level. His 6.9 feet of extension on his release put him in the 83 percentile, where seven feet of extension is seen as elite. He limits hard contact, has a 33% chase percentage and a 33.3% whiff rate and allows an 88.9 average exit velocity which is right around league average. While this is all a small sample size based on three MLB starts, there is no reason to believe that Scott will falter. His upside will come down to his ability to control the strike zone while limiting walks – two things the current Mets rotation seems to be struggling with as a whole.

While the sample size is small, the Mets have not had a pitching prospect with this much helium or promise since the DeGrom/Harvey/Syndergaard/Wheeler/Matz era. Even amongst those names – none of them dominated at the minor league level as Scott has. In addition, they all came with high draft pedigrees and only two of them were drafted by the Mets (DeGrom and Harvey). If Scott can continue his growth, refine his pitches, and stay healthy, he could signal a new, much more forward-thinking player development department. By analyzing data and realizing Scott may be more effective throwing a four-seam fastball and adding to the shape, they took a fifth-round pick who was seen as an organization filler to the top pitching prospect in the system.

2024 OUTLOOK

Scott has already made his debut with the Mets and has exhibited success. While the control/command is not as sharp as it was in the minors, he is still missing bats and has shown the ability to get through the order the third time. With the Mets rotation struggling, it is more likely that Scott will maintain a spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future, but he has never pitched more than 87 2/3 innings in a season. The only thing stopping Christian from having a great full first season could be workload concerns.

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